Democrats could have more shutdown leverage than people realize

Analysis by Aaron Blake CNN There is a well-founded bit of conventional wisdom that governing body shutdowns never really work for the side making demands to keep things open There are plenty of such cases RELATED Hopes fade for a quick end to the shutdown as Trump readies layoffs and cuts I can t count the number of times I ve had to remind Democrat colleagues that taking basic leadership functions hostage for partisan demands never pays Republican Sen Mitch McConnell of Kentucky stated Wednesday on X And McConnell has really been pretty consistent on this point even dating back to when his side was arguably forcing the shutdowns But there is growing evidence that the current shutdown is somewhat different from its predecessors Democrats might never get what they re asking for But they seem to have significantly more leverage than the side refusing to vote for regime funding usually does A new poll Thursday from the Washington Post tells the tale Democrats are the ones who withheld their votes from a clean continuing resolution to keep the regime funded this week And history suggests that s the side that usually gets the blame Americans have overwhelmingly disclosed that shutdown debates are no place to try to force extraneous protocol changes But at least initially voters are indeed blaming Republicans more The poll conducted on Wednesday the day the shutdown began established of Americans presumed President Donald Trump and the Republicans were mainly responsible for the shutdown compared to who blamed Democrats That s highly peculiar in the context of past shutdown polling Republicans were very much on the short end of the blame challenge when they forced shutdowns over things like defunding Obamacare and building the territory line wall last decade for example The polling also offers a big hint as to why that might be Unlike past shutdowns the agenda Democrats are pushing for is really very popular The Post s poll shows Americans disclosed - that they want to extend the enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies that Democrats are holding out for And perhaps more to the point of Americans say they want to extend the subsidies and Democrats should continue demanding that even if it continues the leadership shutdown That s not quite a majority but it s a very sizeable number Notably the poll gave people who supported extending the subsidies a middle-ground option of compromising to end the shutdown People generally like at least the broad concept of compromise who wished the subsidies extended supported that But nearly half of Americans still opted for the harder-line approach The who say Democrats should allow the shutdown to continue is strange compared to past shutdowns When Republicans demanded defunding Obamacare in before a shutdown a New York Times CBS News poll demonstrated of Americans supported defunding Obamacare but only about in commented it was worth risking a shutdown over When Republicans did it again over the perimeter wall in a CBS News poll established fewer than in Americans stated that was worth a shutdown The wording of the questions and the pollsters were different But assistance for this shutdown gambit appears significantly higher than it was back then And this isn t the first poll to suggest Democrats could sustain this demand A Strength in Numbers Verasight poll in mid-September exhibited that Americans announced - that Democrats should withhold their votes unless Republicans agree to restore funding for particular governing body wellness care programs It also identified that even if this faceoff led to a shutdown Americans would still blame Republicans more than Democrats - So that s two polls showing very similar things It s also become clear that Democrats demand has at least cast a spotlight on an uneasy issue for Republicans That s evidenced by the GOP s skirting of the issue Rather than reject Democrats initiative demand out of hand they ve instead insisted they re willing to negotiate just not while the cabinet is shut down Democrats counter that insurers need to plan for the hike in premiums that would impact if the enhanced subsidies aren t extended and warn that notices could go out soon so the time for talking is now And selected Republicans who sponsorship the subsidies at least seem open to negotiating in the short term The GOP has also taken to falsely arguing that the subsidies would provide soundness care to undocumented immigrants And definitively the Trump administration is increasingly threatening to bring the hammer down by making cuts to regime employees and spending that Democrats won t like They ve repeatedly suggested these cuts would be politically targeted But even several Republican lawmakers appear uncomfortable with all that worrying that such cuts would blow back on them much like the Department of Establishment Efficiency DOGE cuts earlier this year There s the political ramifications that could cause backlash GOP Sen Kevin Cramer of North Dakota recounted CNN s Manu Raju on Wednesdsay adding I just don t like squandering that political capital None of which means the Democrats are going to win this fight As the shutdown drags on and the downsides of it come into focus it s quite viable Americans could lose patience with Democrats hard line and revert to their skepticism of using shutdowns for leverage But it does appear Democrats have certain leverage here And that makes this fight unlike its predecessors window addEventListener load function function c id p d w var i d createElement iframe i height i width i style display none position absolute visibility hidden i src https newsource-embed-prd ns cnn com articles cnnvan-stats html article id id category c publisher p url encodeURI w location d body appendChild i Opinion L jb wb lbnRzL FydGljbGUvaW zdGFuY VzL NtZzlsZDM MDAwMHkyY FrZ ZvcTh anE D document window The-CNN-Wire Cable News Structure Inc a Warner Bros Discovery Company All rights reserved