UCLA economic forecast sees warning signs for layoffs and recession

A hiring sign is displayed at a retail store File photo by Nam Y Huh Associated Press The third-quarter UCLA Anderson Forecast distributed Wednesday warns of a rising jeopardy of layoffs and higher inflation that could lead to a recession The exposure of rising layoffs leading to a recession is now a tangible possibility according to the forecast The forecasters explained that the current low unemployment rate masks weak underlying employment upsurge which is a conclusion of a simultaneous decline in the labor supply fromthe working-age population due to restrictive immigration policies and retiring baby boomers At the same time the forecasters expect inflation to continue to rise throughout the rest of this year as the cost of tariffs is passed on to consumers The UCLA economists noted that even if a recession is avoided the business sector could enter a period of stagflation like the late s with both higher inflation and greater unemployment The forecast calls for the national financial market to recover in mid and reach a annual advance rate by the fourth quarter of California is now growing more slowly than the U S average in part because of a decline in manufacturing jobs and deportations that have impacted food processing and agriculture The forecasters declared the while the Trump administration expects U S residents with legal status will take open jobs in the fields and in the meat processing plants that is unlikely to happen The forecast calls for the California to begin to recover in late with slightly higher expansion in The unemployment rate is expected to hit a peak of early next year with average average unemployment rates for and expected to be and