Patriots mailbag: Trying to explain second-half offensive struggles

The Patriots in the end had their winning streak snapped now they ll look to clinch a playoff spot this weekend All it takes is a Patriots win over or a tie with the Ravens a Colts win or tie or a Texans loss or tie Let s get into your questions in this week s mailbag ReallJayr What s going on with Josh McDaniels in the nd half of games There s a pretty concerning trend in the second half of games dating back to the start of November for the Patriots offense In the first half of games since Week quarterback Drake Maye is completing of his passes for yards with seven touchdowns and one interception plus rushing attempts for yards with two touchdowns and five sacks His EPA per play is and his success rate is In the second half of games since Week Maye is completing just of his passes for yards with one touchdown and three interceptions plus rushing attempts for yards with no touchdowns and sacks His EPA per play - and his success rate is Overall the Patriots EPA per play in the first half of those games is and their success rate is In the second half of those games their EPA per play is - and their success rate is Those numbers include three -plus yard touchdown runs from rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson There are certainly certain extenuating circumstances in play The Patriots have been playing with the lead in all but one of those six games so they re playing more conservatively but games have been pretty close against the Falcons Buccaneers Bengals and Bills So it s also practicable that defenses are just figuring them out The the greater part concerning challenge was obviously against the Bills but the Patriots have scored just four touchdowns in the second halves of games since Week and three of those were those long touchdown runs from Henderson They ve only had one longer extended touchdown drive in that span and that came in the third quarter of their win against the Jets on a six-play -yard drive ofibroso Milton Willians or Will Campbell who comes back first Williams is eligible to return first He can come off injured reserve in Week against the Jets Campbell can return in Week against the Dolphins Somewhat surprisingly the Patriots literally miss Williams more than Campbell so far The Patriots run defense has been among the worst in the NFL since Williams suffered his ankle injury in Week ranking th in EPA per rush and st in success rate Before Week they were fourth in EPA per rush and eighth in success rate It certainly didn t help that the Patriots were without linebacker Robert Spillane in Week against the Bills as well Campbell s replacement Vederian Lowe hasn t been perfect through games but he hasn t allowed a sack He s let up one QB hit and six hurries in pass-blocking snaps Thecolours Who do you think Vrabel would rather play in the wild card round The Texans or the Bills for a rd time That s a great question I can t read Vrabel s mind but I think you d prefer to take your chances with the Texans even though they are also a well-rounded club Since Texans QB C J Stroud came back in Week their offense ranks th in EPA per play and their defense is eighth On the entire season the Texans defense ranks first in EPA per play and their offense ranks th but that includes time when Davis Mills was at quarterback The Bills have already beaten the Patriots once and Sunday s loss was pretty demoralizing for New England giving up a -point lead clayvc What s up with Diggs usage It was very surprising to see Stefon Diggs play just half of the Patriots offensive snaps on Sunday You d think you d want Diggs to play as much as manageable in a contest in which he s obviously very motivated against his former group The Patriots used a lot of varying personnel packages in Week playing multiple snaps in a pony formation with Henderson and fellow running back Rhamondre Stevenson sharing the field Fullback Jack Westover played eight snaps offensive tackle Thayer Munford was on the field for snaps as an additional blocker defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga played one snap at fullback and wide receivers DeMario Douglas snaps and Kyle Williams five snaps both got work The Patriots also used tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper on the field together multiple times Still Mack Hollins snaps and Kayshon Boutte snaps both got more work than Diggs It could be a way to keep Diggs fresh but the Patriots were coming off the bye in what should have been a must-win event It seems the Patriots favored mixing up personnel packages over giving Diggs more snaps Ultimately it didn t work jordsmith Who do you think gets the boot once we activate Campbell and Williams from IR The greater part likely Gregory is a strong candidate but who for Campbell Munford good TE and has lots of meeting experience Don t want to lose Caeden either he s young and has promising OT G flex Foxboro Flu That s another very good question Since the Patriots signed Chad Muma off the Colts practice squad they can t cut him for three weeks So that takes him out of the equation Particular other foreseen options are running back D Ernest Johnson and finding another third running back to bring off the practice squad tight end CJ Dippre Munford or cornerback Miles Battle Johnson and Battle might be the easiest to get through waivers and onto the practice squad Munford has been dressing over rookie Marcus Bryant as the Patriots backup tackle so there s no reason to cut him at this point