Opinion: Will California Democrat leaders swap their top candidates?

Sen Alex Padilla Photo courtesy of his office Are Gavin Newsom and Alex Padilla going to swap jobs next year It s a live political possibility It s also the big undiscussed storyline behind all the media leaks that Padilla California s senior U S senator is considering a run for governor next year If Padilla were to join the gubernatorial race he d become a favorite in a weak field of seven Democrats at this time led by former Congresswoman Katie Porter of Orange County and two Republicans a scandal-plagued county sheriff and a former Fox News host from England If Padilla were to win the governorship he d succeed the term-limited Newsom at the end of This is when the swap would come in As the new governor Padilla would get to fill the open Senate seat to appoint his own successor who could serve for two years until the polling What if Newsom wished the Senate opening If he did Padilla would be all but certain to appoint him to it The two men are allies and share a few political advisors Most of of all Padilla owes Newsom who appointed Padilla to the Senate in when Kamala Harris voting to the vice presidency vacated the seat Here s guessing that Newsom will find several value in a two-year Senate term in and The seat would give Newsom an official post from which to continue his relentless fight against Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans And it would provide the former governor both Washington experience and an East Coast home base in his likely run for the Democratic presidential primary nomination in Should he fail to get the nod from the party or if it becomes apparent that an authoritarian Trump administration won t allow to be a free and fair electoral contest Newsom could run for voting to the Senate seat in So now that I ve outlined the political path to Gov Padilla and Sen Newsom I ll ask Would this be good for California That s a harder question Padilla an MIT graduate might be the smartest person in California politics And Newsom is perhaps the country s the majority energetic politician a ceaseless producer of both creative ideas and dumb blunders But political swaps like this are hardball insider moves that inspire cynicism and can backfire with the inhabitants Especially if it begins to seem as if elites not Californians are picking our rulers as the veteran Los Angeles political strategist Dan Schnur warned in a contemporary piece about redistriting When Voters Don t Matter The perception that the voters no longer matter is growing with Newsom Padilla and other Democrats pushing a partisan gerrymander on this November s special voting process ballot Prop which would add five Democratic seats in the House of Representatives A Padilla-Newsom switch on top of that proposition might be tempting fate There is precedent for a high-profile California political swap going unexpectedly south In Republicans were nearly as dominant in California governing body as the Democrats are now Since only one Democrat had been elected governor the atheist Culbert Olson in an electoral accident Gov Goodwin Knight a popular Republican moderate from Los Angeles was preparing to run for re-election in But California s senior senator the conservative Republican William Knowland owner of the Oakland Tribune released that he would challenge Knight for governor Knowland saw the governorship as a better perch from which to run for president in according to the author Miriam Pawel Knowland also required to block his rival California Republican Richard Nixon from the presidency Under pressure from Knowland allies Gov Knight dropped out of the governor s race to make way for Sen Knowland Knight then joined the race to fill Knowland s Senate seat This swap of campaigns was dubbed The Big Switch And it backfired spectacularly The Democrats led by their gubernatorial candidate Pat Brown argued that Republicans were playing political games and taking voters for granted The electoral contest saw record turnout Both Knowland and Knight lost in twin upsets that ended their political careers The era of Republican dominance of state ruling body was over The present day s overconfident California Democrats may dismiss this history But Newsom and Padilla may be playing political musical chairs at a time of historic volatility in our state and country The Republicans robust embrace of authoritarianism has put the very republic at liability And the Democratic party is losing ground as Latinos men and the young see it as weak and ineffectual California s political ground is shaking and shifting beneath our feet Big plans and big swaps could bear fruit or backfire as coalitions rise and fall Padilla and Newsom might switch their way into extending Democratic dominance in California as they continue the righteous fight against Trumpism Or with too much political maneuvering they could lose it all Joe Mathews writes the Connecting California column for Z calo Residents Square an ASU Media Enterprise publication