Elias: Prop. 50 likely to stay intact no matter the fate of Texas gerrymander

If anyone needed proof of how swiftly political change can arrive this fall is likely Example A Related Articles Elias Becerra may have to drop out of race for California governor Elias Newsom s presidential star rising after state s Prop win Elias California governor hopefuls Porter Hilton making big blunders Just observe the last month First California Gov Gavin Newsom was riding high after passage of Proposition and its changes in California congressional district lines made him the the greater part triumphant national Democrat in countering a key initiative by President Trump Barely a week later Newsom s former chief of staff was indicted on charges of political corruption and tax fraud and multiple began to write him off as a presidential candidate because of it Not even a week after that Newsom was back in the catbird seat after a federal appeals court in Texas threw out that state s gerrymandered congressional district plan which earlier provided the motive for the Newsom-sponsored Prop The U S Supreme Court days later temporarily reinstated the gerrymandered Texas lines It now appears the Texas decision nixing the changes there may be reversed by the high court even though it was written by a Trump-appointed judge Meanwhile the California proposition figures to survive its own court challenges filed by the state Republican Party and the U S Justice Department That s because Texas leaders from Gov Greg Abbott down were open about their effort to concentrate Houston-area blacks into one district while giving five others to white Republicans By contrast there was little or no mention of race by either side in the Prop campaign which was very explicitly motivated by pure politics Newsom created Prop specifically to counter the Texas gerrymander which unlike California s changes in district lines was not adopted by a vote of the people No race issue ever arose here until Republicans claimed after Prop s resounding win that was what motivated it Nothing says the U S Supreme Court has to give a final OK to either the Texas court decision or Prop but if it eventually tosses both gerrymanders Newsom would still achieve his political goal of offsetting the Texas changes put in motion by a phone call from Trump to Abbott If both efforts are eventually nixed Newsom s goal of regaining the prior balance after the Texas action would still have been reached Declared one electoral process law professor the day of the Texas decision There are not plenty of grounds for a legal challenge against Prop to succeed There remains a possibility that both Prop and the Texas court decision tossing that state s gerrymander will stand up in the Supreme Court If that happens Newsom would have achieved far more than his goal of balancing the Texas gerrymander with an exchange of five new California Democratic seats for five new Texas GOP ones In that circumstance Newsom would have given Democrats a net gain of five seats in the House of Representatives If something like that couldn t put Newsom in an early lead in the Democratic presidential sweepstakes it s hard to see what could A net gain of five seats would likely give Democrats control of the House where almost all new Trump initiatives might then die No wonder Newsom gloating after the Texas court decision came down In a post on X he revealed Donald Trump and Greg Abbott played with fire got burned and democracy won For a moment Even if Newsom proves correct though and the high court eventually says it s OK to gerrymander at midterm for political reasons but not racial ones he will still be a long way from winning the next Democratic nomination For Newsom took a turn toward the center in his bill signings this fall favoring business in various of his decisions His fall efforts were clearly designed to stamp him as a moderate but also an environmentalist with a tight financial fist This could leave him open to a challenge from the left by someone like New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who has built a career around leading her party s far-left wing That possibility gained credence from the New York mayoral win of Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani and the subsequent upset win by fellow Democratic Socialist Katie Wilson and a slate of similarly-oriented candidates in Seattle The bottom line Newsom may be riding high currently but in a season of very speedy change no one can know how long that will last Email Thomas Elias at tdelias aol com and read more of his columns online at californiafocus net