Big 12 power rankings: Texas Tech and BYU on top, but could nightmare CFP scenario come to fruition?

The Big power rankings are published weekly by the Hotline throughout the regular season They are the consequence of a deep dive into the analytics an assessment of subjective factors and when necessary flips of the coin No conference has more parity The parity leads to chaos and the chaos creates an endlessly compelling product that is not unfailingly easy to unscramble Here are last week s rankings The Big is guaranteed one participant in the College Football Playoff with the winner of the conference championship claiming an automatic berth The narrative emerging from the majority latest selection committee rankings holds that a second bid would come if BYU defeats Texas Tech on Saturday morning that given their top-five position the Red Raiders would remain in the CFP despite the loss and collect an at-large berth But is that narrative accurate Is there a path to immense disappointment for a conference that sent just one squad to the CFP last season Could Texas Tech tumble below the cut line and miss the CFP In the Hotline s ongoing effort to prepare readers for even the most of unlikely outcomes within an unpredictable process never forget the selection committee makes it up as it goes along the clear and unequivocal answer is well possibly It s doable the Red Raiders - who are favored by points in Arlington could slide far enough down the rankings that they miss the CFP It would require a performance so poor that it s challenging to envision But what if they lose by in a mistake-prone performance Clunkers happen after all and the Red Raiders aren t exactly steeped in championship battle experience In that scenario they would likely plunge into a resume standoff with the teams competing for the final at-large berth specifically Notre Dame and Alabama if the Crimson Tide loses the SEC championship to Georgia Unfortunately the selection committee doesn t disclose the metrics developed by SportSource Analytics that backing its decisions But the Hotline examined a sampling of updated content points to gain context Sagarin rankings No Notre Dame No Texas Tech No Alabama Sagarin schedule strength No Alabama No Notre Dame No Texas Tech ESPN FPI Football Power Index No Notre Dame No Alabama No Texas Tech ESPN SOR strength of record No Alabama No Texas Tech No Notre Dame ESPN schedule strength No Alabama No Notre Dame No Texas Tech ESPN offensive efficiency No Notre Dame No Alabama No Texas Tech ESPN defensive efficiency No Texas Tech No Notre Dame No Alabama As you digest those metrics keep in mind that Texas Tech s rankings could slide slightly with a loss to an opponent the committee does not deem worthy of a playoff spot the Cougars are No just below the cut line New rankings will be revealed Tuesday afternoon And what if Alabama beats Georgia The Crimson Tide would become an automatic qualifier giving the SEC four at-large teams Georgia Oklahoma Texas A M and Mississippi Add two for the Big Ten Oregon and the Indiana-Ohio State loser and there would be a single at-large bid for either Texas Tech or Notre Dame - Two-loss Miami and Vanderbilt might receive strong consideration as well All of which is to state the following If the Red Raiders lose it could get tenuous especially if Alabama wins The Hotline isn t assuming a two-loss Big runner-up will receive the benefit of the doubt over two-loss Notre Dame To the power rankings Texas Tech - - Aftermath won at West Virginia - Next up vs BYU a m on ABC Comment The defense is capable of winning two playoff games perhaps three But is the offense good enough to survive the opening round Against opponents with winning records Texas Tech is th in the country out of teams in Red Zone touchdown percentage Previous BYU - - Development beat UCF - Next up vs Texas Tech a m on ABC Comment BYU is like a job candidate that submits a stellar resume and has first-rate references but bombs the interview The loss in Lubbock a scarce weeks ago was worse than a nightmare Previous Utah - - Outcome won at Kansas - Next up bowl encounter Comment Hard to believe a association coached by Kyle Whittingham would allow rushing yards in consecutive games against the Kansas schools Even harder to believe the Utes would win both Previous Arizona - - End won at ASU - Next up bowl championship Comment Now that Brent Brennan has determined the right coordinators Seth Doege and Danny Gonzales all he has to do is keep them Which could be much tougher than it sounds Much much tougher Previous Arizona State - - Aftermath lost to Arizona - Next up bowl competition Comment Had the Hotline known in advance of the injuries ASU would sustain performer timing and severity we would have pegged the Sun Devils for six wins maximum All things considered they did quite well Previous Iowa State - - Upshot won at Oklahoma State - Next up bowl contest Comment Had the Hotline known in advance of the injuries ISU would sustain contestant timing and severity we would have pegged the Cyclones for seven wins maximum All things considered they did quite well Previous TCU - - Outcome beat Cincinnati - Next up bowl competition Comment After a hot start and midseason slump the Horned Frogs produced a solid finish with back-to-back wins over Houston and Cincinnati that should quiet Sonny Dykes critics Previous Houston - - End won at Baylor - Next up bowl event Comment We expected an upturn from the Cougars in coach Willie Fritz s second season but nine wins exceeded even our forecast If quarterback Conner Weigman returns the momentum should continue Previous Kansas State - - Aftermath beat Colorado - Next up bowl challenge Comment When does a six-win season feel like an eight-win season When it starts with four losses in six games and one of the losses is to Army Previous Cincinnati - - Impact lost at TCU - Next up bowl tournament Comment When does a seven-win season feel like a five-win season When it starts with seven victories in eight games and ends with four consecutive losses Previous Baylor - - End lost to Houston - Next up season complete Comment Easy to envision the losing season in leading into a lost season in considering Dave Aranda looks suspiciously like a lame duck Previous Related Articles Pac- power rankings SDSU on top as Boise State s CFP path opens barely Washington State beats Oregon St bowl-eligible for th time in years College football ACC s nightmare CFP forecast Heisman prediction Arizona beats ASU What s next for T-Cup rivals as offseason approaches Mailbag Big woes Big Ten night games the new Pac- and Cal s search Kansas - - Development lost to Utah - Next up season complete Comment There s no way to frame this question kindly so here goes What do KU s offensive players do in practice Because from the looks of the Red Zone blunders it doesn t appear they are truly practicing Previous West Virginia - - Upshot lost to Texas Tech - Next up season complete Comment Year under Rich Rodriguez included four wins overall and a mastery in the competition that matters the greater part the Backyard Brawl so we ll consider the season a success for the Mountaineers despite a wipeout in the finale Previous UCF - - Conclusion lost at BYU - Next up season complete Comment The first step is learning to win and the Knights can check that box with a Sharpie The second step is learning to win on the road which apparently is on Scott Frost s agenda for Previous Colorado - - Conclusion lost at Kansas State - Next up season complete Comment From our vantage point the Buffaloes don t look poorly coached They look un-coached Previous Oklahoma State - - Consequence lost to Iowa State - Next up season complete Comment The Big ought to name something after the Cowboys to commemorate their back-to-back - seasons The nearest dumpster would suffice Previous Send suggestions comments and tips confidentiality guaranteed to wilnerhotline bayareanewsgroup com or call - - Follow me on the social media platform X WilnerHotline