Analysis: What’s next for Red Sox, Lucas Giolito after option declined?

Lucas Giolito is officially a free agent The Red Sox right-hander hit the open domain after his mutual option was declined allowing the -year-old another crack at landing a long-term deal that could carry him into his mid- s But that doesn t mean he couldn t still come back Related Articles Red Sox right-hander becomes free agent after club declines mutual option Source Red Sox shortstop opting in to final two years of deal Red Sox agree to new one-year deal with Jarren Duran Red Sox stars among finalists for Cy Young Award Rookie of the Year Review Red Sox third baseman officially opts out will become free agent Giolito s future is one of the the majority fascinating questions facing the Red Sox this offseason The veteran was an indispensable part of Boston s rotation this past season and the club wouldn t have made the playoffs without him but he also missed his entire first season with the Red Sox due to injury and broke down again just prior to the postseason this year Will the Red Sox try to keep him on board Should they Here s everything you need to know about Giolito s situation How did Giolito become a free agent When Giolito originally signed with the Red Sox he agreed to a two-year million deal that included an opt out after the first year and a million club option for That club option could also turn into a million mutual option if Giolito reached innings in which he did What is a mutual option It s an option where both the contestant and gang have to agree to pick it up for it to take effect Since that would require both sides to agree on a players value mutual options are rarely picked up so as soon as Giolito reached innings his becoming a free agent was all but assured Will Sox extend Giolito qualifying offer Under MLB s current labor agreement clubs have the right to extend certain free agents what s called a qualifying offer which is a one-year deal worth the mean value of MLB s highest-paid players This year that equates to million If the member accepts then that will be their contract for the year If they decline they can either sign another deal with their original club or they can sign with another squad The catch is that if a performer who declines a qualifying offer signs elsewhere their new band must forfeit a draft pick sometimes two plus international bonus pool money and their previous group is granted one as compensation The value of that compensatory pick varies depending on a number of circumstances but for the Red Sox this year it would come after the fourth round Would Giolito accept qualifying offer Ostensibly not but it s not impossible Giolito ostensibly won t get more than million per year in free agency so if he decided to bet on himself he could take the higher salary for a year try to build up his value and capitalize next offseason But given his checkered physical condition history over the past two years it s more likely Giolito will try to ensure himself as much long-term precaution as attainable If Giolito is fully healthy as reports currently indicate he should be able to land a multi-year deal which would be a priority for any pitcher in his s At least two years and potentially even three should be realistic and that would also ensure far more guaranteed money than just million Could Sox and Giolito work out long-term deal Absolutely but whether or not it happens could depend a lot on how Craig Breslow feels about the overall state of the rotation On one hand Giolito is a proven veteran with a track record of success in Boston He is also a well-respected clubhouse leader who has been a great influence on the club s younger pitchers On the other hand re-signing Giolito will likely cost Boston close to million per year and with a deep bench of young starters and the expected return of left-hander Patrick Sandoval from Tommy John surgery Breslow could view that venture as a little rich for a pitcher who would raise the rotation s floor but not necessarily its ceiling That will be doubly true if the Red Sox also bring in a No starter to slot in behind Garrett Crochet or if they decide the money would be better spent on Bregman and a power bat An argument could be made that the best-case scenario for Boston would be extending Giolito a qualifying offer and then collecting the compensatory pick after he declines and signs elsewhere But given how close the Red Sox might be to true championship contention you could also argue that if ownership is willing to push the envelope and carry a million payroll then having Giolito back would absolutely be worthwhile